Jobs Interview

There’s a good interview with Steve Jobs in the latest Fortune magazine.  One of my favorite parts was this:

People think focus means saying yes to the thing you’ve got to focus on.  But that’s not what it means at all.  It means saying no to the 100 other good ideas that there are.  You have to pick carefully. I’m actually as proud of many of the things we haven’t done as the things we have done.  The clearest example was when we were pressured for years to do a PDA, and I realized one day that 90% of the people who use a PDA only take information out of it on the road.  They don’t put inforation into it. Pretty soon cellphones are going to do that, so the PDA market’s going to get reduced to a fraction of its current size.  So we decided to not get into it.  If we had gotten into it, we wouldn’t have had the resources to do the iPod.

That holds very much true at Qloud. We’ve had lots of ideas on our whiteboard and killing some of the good ones is just as hard as building the great ones.

Music lessons from Seth

Speaking of music (my last post was), a good blog post from Seth Godin about music lessons. To read it all, go here. The main points were:

0. The new thing is never as good as the old thing, at least right now.
Soon, the new thing will be better than the old thing will be. But if you wait until then, it’s going to be too late. Feel free to wax nostalgic about the old thing, but don’t fool yourself into believing it’s going to be here forever. It won’t.

1. Past performance is no guarantee of future success
Every single industry changes and, eventually, fades. Just because you made money doing something a certain way yesterday, there’s no reason to believe you’ll succeed at it tomorrow.

The music business had a spectacular run alongside the baby boomers. Starting with the Beatles and Dylan, they just kept minting money. The co-incidence of expanding purchasing power of teens along with the birth of rock, the invention of the transistor and changing social mores meant a long, long growth curve.

As a result, the music business built huge systems. They created top-heavy organizations, dedicated superstores, a loss-leader touring industry, extraordinarily high profit margins, MTV and more. It was a well-greased system, but the key question: why did it deserve to last forever?

It didn’t. Yours doesn’t either.

iPhone will take down Blackberry eventually

I had a Blackberry Pearl and loved it.  I was planning to keep it – until i saw a friend’s iPhone.  It was just so frackin’ slick that i couldn’t stay away.  Does Blackberry do email better?  Yes.  Does Blackberry have some better/smaller sizes that are better for a cell phone?  Yes, definitely.  But is it as cool or fun to use an iPhone?  Not even close.

However, i always hear about people going back to their Blackberry’s b/c of the email capability.  I can understand that.  I don’t use my iPhone email for work everyday and it is harder to type.  But the other advantages heavily outweigh this one feature.

I then read this blog post by Tim O’Reilly about “Why the iPhone Will Beat the Blackberry.”  He write that Blackberry users are cell phone power users and:

power users are a minority, and while they point the way to the future, they tend to be disappointed when the rest of the market catches up with an inferior product that has a lower barrier to new users. So, my prediction: the Blackberry will become more like the iPhone, or the iPhone and its imitators will eventually eat its lunch, relegating it to a niche player. The iPhone is now the communications device to beat. 

I couldn’t agree more.  The iPhone is only getting better going at email and the Blackberry will never come close to the iPhone in slickness of features – including the iPod.   It’s only a matter of time before Blackberry goes down.

I heard a rumor that Microsoft was going to purchase Blackberry.  I don’t hear it anymore, but i think that’d be a great move for both companies.

EMI Tracks on iTunes – Not mp3’s

I’ve heard a bunch of stuff today about all of EMI’s tracks being available on iTunes without DRM. At first i was really happy, but 2 things kept me from being REALLY impressed.

First, these tracks are not mp3’s. Everyone is assuming they are, but they’re not. They are in a format called “unprotected AAC. ” For those of you who don’t know, AAC is a similar format to mp3 but to-date it is only used by MPEg4 players and Apple (it was partially developed by Apple).  The format is understood by iPods and iTunes, but really nothing else. If you buy an unprotected AAC track, you can email it to whoever you want and listen to it on unlimited amount of computers. But, can you listen to it on the an iRiver player, the slick Samsung players or the nice Sandisk Sansa player? NOPE!

This is very clever strategic move by Apple. They have 2 objectives in mind by only offering AAC: 1) Get out of the legislation trouble they’re having in Europe which is asking them to open up thier DRM technology so other people can make iPod-like devices. 2) Try to keep the iPod as the go-to device for music. If they sold mp3’s they would solve problem 1 but then any player could be used with iTunes music. By making the tracks AAC, none of the competing players in the market today will work. Of course, new players can add AAC format compatibility in the future. But they have to license it. From who? – you guessed it: Apple!

The second thing that struck me as strange is that unprotected music is more expensive than protected. This is dumb. Sooner or later the labels will realize that people want convenience and value. There is a group of people who use the iTunes store. By making the unprotected tracks more expensive you’ll earn a few extra dollars from those users (and only those users) as they will prefer to have un-tethered music. But they won’t get the P2P fanatics. They won’t get anyone under the age of 25 to go to iTunes and buy a track. I’m not sure if 99 cents is low enough for an mp3, but i know that $1.30 is too expensive. It’s a shame. Sooner or later they’ll realize they aren’t going far enough, they aren’t getting new users with this model.

All this being said, it’s a step in the right direction and i can’t wait to see what the other labels do when they see that EMI unprotected tracks are MUCH more popular than the regular iTunes tracks.

Holy Crap the iPhone is AMAZING

Granted, i haven’t seen it in person or used it, but i watched the Macworld speech by Steve Jobs about it and let me tell you – the phone looks incredible.  The phone looks awesome but more than that, it is over-delivering.  Again, Apple is taking everyone’s expectations, throwing them out the window and giving us something that we didn’t even dream about.  There were months of speculation and NONE of them were even close to this.   It was never a question of whether or not mobile phones would replace iPods, but rather a question of when.  Apple knew this and made the most rockin’ mobile phone one could imagine.  Here’s what it’s got….

• Thin as hell. While it is somewhat large which is nice for watching videos, it is really thin and pretty sleek.
• Touch screen. While i’ve not a big fan of them in the past, it looks like they’ve thought about all the screwups that usually happen and made this screen really sizzle. The mouse on MacBooks are really good with recognizing multiple finger scrolling and supposedly the iPhone is too.  Also, touch screens can change when you add in applications or change functionality so this phone is forward-compatible.
• A super-high-resolution screen. This makes videos, photos, and web browsing really a fun (or non-painful) experience. Putting only 1/5 of a browser on a screen, which is what most phones do, sucks. The iPhone screen is much better so that a whole browser screen can fit and it makes regular photos and desktop images gorgeous.
• It’s also an iPod. Having it be an iPod too is the way to go. I can imagine a day when all iPods are cell phones.  Synergy, got to love it.
• Sycnhing contacts and photos and music, which is really painful for most phones as their computer software sucks.  Apple does this really well with iTunes and iPods and this phone will synch with iTunes too which makes lots of sense.
• Wi-fi capabilities. Cell networks sometime suck, so it’s nice to be able to jump onto a wireless connection if it is available.  Browing the web on this thing will be fast too.
• Google Maps built in. My current phone has Blackberry maps built in and it’s a great feature to have on a phone. Google Maps are even better (Double True!) so that’s a big plus.  I’ve yet to see any phone have this feature.  It shows that bringing Google’s CEO onto the Apple board was good for something.
• Voicemail browsing similar to email browsing.  Don’t know why this hasn’t been done before but it’s awesome.
• Even the bluetooth accessories look slick

Some other specifics: $499 (4GB) or $599 (8GB) avaialble in June with 2 commitment from Cingular.

 

iPhone Is On Its Way

This is the guy that Apple sued because he always get it right.  So this is probably the real deal:

Apple iPhone to be Cingular-exclusive at launch
By Ryan Katz, Senior Editor

September 26, 2006 – Apple and Cingular have signed an agreement that will make the US’ largest cell phone provider the exclusive carrier of Apple’s forthcoming phone, sources report. Apple’s iPhone remains on track for an early 2007 release.

As previously reported, Apple’s phone will feature a candy-bar design with a 2.2-inch display and 3 megapixel camera. Robust iTunes and iSync support will also be delivered with the phone.

Apple’s exclusive contract with Cingular is said to be good for the first six months, sources report, meaning other providers will be able to sell the phone in the second-half of 2007. Cingular had an exclusive on the Motorola ROKR—the first phone to feature iTunes—when it launched last year.

Sources say Apple is in talks with providers in other parts of the world on exclusive deals, but are short on specifics. O2 had the exclusive on the ROKR in Europe, however, suggesting that provider may again be tapped to launch Apple’s phone.

Meanwhile, insiders say Apple is internally estimating that shipments of the iPhone will top a staggering 25 million in 2007 alone. Motorola’s RAZR, by contrast, has sold more than 50 million units since its launch in late 2004. Apple is betting a phone with Apple’s iconic design, elegant interface, and iPod-matching functionality will be a strong draw for users who currently carry both devices on them.

http://www.thinksecret.com/news/0609cingulariphone.html

If I Was Apple, What I Would Do To Protect iTunes

Apple has a great monopoly on both the fulfillment and playback of digital music. ITunes is a great player, the iTunes Music Store is the most comprehensive music store available online, and the iPod is the best, most badass player on the market. However, competitors are coming on strong. Microsoft announced the Zune project, Sony is releasing new players (article), and smaller players like the Music Gremlin are doing some cool and innovative stuff.

So, what should apple do to protect this mighty lead? They should give aways as many iTunes tracks as possible! Seriously, like it is halloween or a homecoming parade they should throw tracks away like candy. And, like the clever company they are, that’s exactly what they are doing. Last week they announced that they are giving away tracks to college kids with a deal with thefacebook to give away 10 million tracks (btw: facebook is the 7th most trafficed site in the US). And yesterday Apple annouced a deal with Coke which said in the press release, “Coke will link its website to the iTunes site and give away millions of free music downloads and hundreds of iPod digital music players”

Why is this a good idea? Because every track that a user gets from iTunes keeps them attached to the Apple world. If you have hundreds of tracks that only work in iTunes and iPods, you’re not very likely to buy or use anything else but if you have only mp3’s from CD’s, eMusic, or “found” online it’s pretty easy to go somewhere else. So, to ensure that nobody switches in the future, Apple should lock everyone in with iTunes tracks. Personally, i’m keeping

Subscription Music Breakdown

In the past few months, i've had quite a few questions about what "subscription" music is. This is my attempt to explain it.

Napster, Rhapsody, MusicNow, MTV, and Yahoo! all offer services where you can get unlimited music for about $10 a month. The one caveat is that the tracks you download with these services are all "rented" – meaning that as soon as you stop paying for them, you can no longer play them. The way this works is that each file requires a license to play. When you download a track you get both the file and the license. For a track to play in a player the license must be valid. Whichever service you use, they automatically renew all licenses every 30 days. If you're no longer a subscriber, the license doesn't get renewed and the files don't play. Another company, EMusic, is a little different – you get 40 downloads of mp3's for $10 bucks a month. While you don't get as many files, you get them in mp3 format and can keep them forever – you truly own them.

Why it hasn't worked? This model hasn't worked for two BIG reasons:

• Can't find enough music to satisfy $10 a month. What do you want for your birthday? Tell me now. It's hard isn't it. Everybody knows they want something for their birthday, but when they have to think about it NOW, it's tough. It is the same with subscription music. Everybody knows they like a bunch of music and want to download it, but when you're at the front page of Napster, it is hard to remember what you want. Trust me, i've done countless focus groups – this is a big problem. If you can find what you want to download, you don't download and the value of an unlimited download service lessens.
• iPods and iTunes. iPods are not only pretty to look at, with the iTunes player, they are insanely easy to use. As a device, they are so much easier to use than other subscription compatible devices. Using them, users don't have to ever worry about licenses and they don't have to worry about other media players or connections or anything. An ipod works with – and ONLY with – iTunes which means that it is designed to be simple. Microsoft is a platform company. They make platforms that any vendor can use to sell devices or services. Which is great, but it means that both the devices and the WindowsMedia format itself is going to be much, much more complex – and unfortunately for them, it shows. Until that extra functionality MS allows is really useful, it's only a hindrance.

Will subscription ever be a good way to get new tunes? I believe it will. It is very easy to create music now, and the amount of music being created is only going to keep growing. There is a need for people to find and explore the expanding universe of music. Once there are better searching techniques, I believe the utility of subscription music will rise.

Ian Rodgers, who works at Yahoo Music provided (in this podcast) a great way to think about the advantages of subscription music. It went something like this….

users care about 2 things regarding music: playing music and owning music. If you want to own music, you're best bet is to purchase the CD. You get the music in a lossless format which can be burned into any format at any bitrate indefinitely and also receive associated images, liner notes, etc. If you want to play music, your best option is a subscription platform which allows you to play as much as possible for pretty cheap.

I like that thought, but that doesn't account for iPods, nor the convenience of purchasing only a track vs. an entire album.

That's the theory – what do you think?

A funny sidenote that i like. WMA files (non iTunes) are protected by a technology called in the industry Janus, and by marketers "Plays for Sure." Check out a past blog post of mine which describes why this is a clever reference to a muppet.

More Netvibes & Browser Desktops

Following up on last week’s post about Netvibes, i just noticed that they have added a few very SWEET features:

1. They now have tabs so you can set up different views of feeds. I personally have a work related tab (internety blog feeds), a sports tab (deadspin, sports guy, others), and a personal tab (moose, mowery, barbero, flickr photos, best week ever blog)

2. They have a module you can put in there from box.net which allows you to put up to a gig of files. It just a hosted storage area as an rss feed. It’s totally sweet.

What does this all mean? Basically, we’re approaching a world where the desktop is replaced with a browser. Instead of applications like Word, Excel, Outlook, iTunes, and Windows it will be a world of Writely, NumSum, Gmail, mp3tunes, and things like Netvibes. All you need is a browser and you can get all your docs, music, email, etc. All signs point to this: Google’s acquisition of Writely, Windows browser replacements like Goowy and Netvibes, more and more bandwidth being available to users, the growth of server processors (AMD Dual-Core). It’s coming…i’m telling you.

Songbird’s Here

There’s a new media player that’s been released called Songbird. iTunes has dominated as the go-to media player for people to play music. And with WMP, Winamp, Yahoo Music Engine and others (J. River) it would seem that the space is pretty saturated. How could a new player even hope to catch up, let alone beat these other players?

The answer is the open-source community. Similar to how Firefox has used the legions of developers to create a great product with many extensions/plug-ins to be better than Internet Explorer (IE), Songbird hopes to do the same to WMP and iTunes. In fact, Songbird is built on top of Gecko (Firefox’s core engine) so it’s basically a media playing browser that is open for developers around the world to use.

Version 0.1 was release 2 weeks ago and 0.1.1 was released this week. While still not as feature rich as other players you can see the potential and let me tell you, it’s only a matter of time before great extensions and services leverage its openness to create a superior experience to iTunes and WMP.